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Overview of the Information Analysis Systems theme

Modeling and analysis tools to support better informed decision making at multiple levels of scale

Overview

Dynamic Preparedness System for FAZD outbreaks 1This research contributes to the development and application of a new generation of analytic capacities to address the DHS priority areas, thereby allowing informed assessment of potential threats to U.S. animal agriculture and the value of potential mitigation and control strategies.  Its specific goals are to apply developments from Epidemiology, Economics, Risk analysis, Environmental analysis, Information technology and Spatial science in an interdisciplinary modeling context to the design and analysis of improved mitigation strategies against foreign animal and zoonotic disease outbreaks permitting both National and regional analyses and in the process generating / unifying Databases / Spatial analyses, Models, and Disease management insights that may be delivered to a variety of scientific, agency and industry stakeholders.
In pursuing this goal the Center is under taking several converging activities, including:

  • Acquiring, developing, and organizing a complex array of databases. 
  • Assembling, integrating, and updating biological, epidemic, economic, environmental, and production models. 
  • Conducting database and model supported risk and strategy evaluation based case studies.
  • Model/Data integration into common environment for use within and outside the Center.
  • Cooperating with National Laboratories, agencies and other partners.

 

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The IMA team pursues projects in these sub-themes:

Epidemiologic modeling -- This project aims to develop simulation models of foreign animal and zoonotic disease spread, for use in decision-support and analyses.  Efforts have been focused on foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) incursions with case studies in both California and Texas, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) incursions with a case study in the Gulf Coast region of Texas, and the spread of Rift Valley fever (RVF) through susceptible livestock populations with case studies in Texas and Africa.  Specific aims include:

  • Characterize the spatial distribution and contact structure within defined livestock systems

  • Improve epidemic model application scale so that they can be used as platforms for analysis at regional and national scales

  • Develop and apply a decision support system that assists policy formulation to efficiently detect and respond to incursions of high impact consequence diseases – such as FMD, HPAI and RVF.

DJAnalysis and information -- The goal of the Analysis and Information aggregate project is to develop data, computing capacity, spatial analysis capability, software, and modeling support for FAZD decision making and the projects within the Center.  Activities include:

  • Development of geospatial data acquisition and transformation capabilities and database/spatial analyses that may be disseminated as standalone products and are linkable to economic, environmental and transportation models

  • Linking models and databases while providing a bridge between and among analysts and decision makers.

Economic, Risk and Environmental Modeling -- The project aims to develop and apply economic, risk, and environmental science and modeling in evaluating and facilitating the design of improved mitigation strategies against foreign animal and zoonotic disease outbreaks.  Specific aims include:

  • Economic studies of when to implement protection and install detection or response capability before an event as opposed to responding and recovering after events occur - including integrating carcass disposal considerations with disease management.

  • Examining the impacts of outbreaks on trade and meat demand.

  • Examining the economics of compensation policy directed toward disease events.

  • Developing economic models for linkage to epidemic models for joint evaluation of the benefits and costs of outbreak events.

  • Examining economic measures of vulnerability of total livestock sector to foreign animal and zoonotic disease events outbreaks beginning at select points then evaluating strategic alternatives and potential research developments.

 

 

Leading products

 

  • Integrated System to Support Threat Assessment and Evaluation of Others: Strategic planning and emergency response interventions require a broad perspective to include economic, epidemiologic, and environmental consequences of options.  The FAZD Center modeling approach is providing this linkage for planning, training, emergency response and recovery.
  • Interstate Transportation Model for Cattle and Swine (with NCFPD):  Most epidemiologic models assume disease is spread by direct or indirect contact at local levels and they do not take into account the long distance movement of animals across the country that occurs in commerce.  The DHS has provided special funding to the National Center for Food Protection and Defense (NCFPD) and the FAZD Center to acquire the data and to build a national transportation model that will be input to multiple epidemiologic modeling efforts.  The initial effort will focus on beef, dairy, and swine, but we are planning follow on efforts for other commodities.  This will provide for the first time a quantitative estimate of what is probably one of the most important factors in the spread of foreign animal or zoonotic disease through the interstate movement of large numbers of animals over long distances.
  • Risk Assessment for Foreign Animal and Zoonotic Disease (with NCPFPD):  DHS has provided special funding to the NCFPD and FAZD Center for a study to compare and evaluate the various models now used for risk assessment and to explore their utility for foreign animal and zoonotic disease. This study, which is being initiated now, involves comparison of existing models and identification of gaps in both data and modeling ability. This study will provide an important next step in organizing the existing array of related models for estimating the impact of either intentional or unintentional introduction of animal disease in the U.S.
  • RVF Epidemiologic and Economic Impact Assessment for NBACC:  FAZD Center scientists provided an assessment of the national epidemiologic and economic impact of various scenarios of an outbreak of Rift Valley fever in the U.S. for the biennial White House Biothreat Risk Assessment conducted by the DHS National Biological Threat Characterization Center. A vector borne human and animal disease, Rift Valley fever is an emerging threat and is one of the select agents for bioterrorism.  An outbreak in the U.S. would have its largest impact in areas where mosquitoes reside with livestock and wildlife.
  • Assessment of Impact of FMD Outbreak in Feedlots – Texas:  The impact of outbreaks of FMD into randomly selected feedlots has been assessed in a nine county area of the High Plains of Texas that contains a high concentration of large CAFO operations. A model has been updated and adapted to create a realistic, regional FMD epidemic model.  This resulted from collaboration between the FAZD Center, the Texas Cattle Feeders Association and West Texas A&M University. Sixty-four scenarios were developed. Each includes single site introductions for each of four index herd types. For each type, a range of mitigations was simulated. The FAZD Center’s economic researchers are evaluating the economic impacts of the various mitigation strategies that were simulated. Early detection is a very important facet in limiting the spread of FMD after introduction and the epidemiologic and economic impact.  Vaccination as a means of containing the disease was effective only in selected scenarios.  The early availability of vaccine was important in its efficacy.
  • Models and Databases to Assess Consequences of Prevention and Intervention: The ability to examine the molecular intricacies of infectious agent-host processes is critical to the development of new protection, detection, and therapeutic strategies. The FAZD Center has worked with multiple partners including several national laboratories to develop a suite of molecular analytical tools that has provided valuable and often unanticipated insight into select agent disease pathways, and is now being employed for the study of other important agents including Avian Influenza.
  • State Guidance – Critical Food and Agriculture Assets with (NCPFD): NCPFD and the FAZD Center were asked to develop a more quantitative systems approach for state level emergency responders and industry to assess the relative priority of their food and agriculture assets as a means of determining the allocation of DHS resources for prevention and emergency response to outbreaks of disease or other emergencies.  The preliminary methods have been very well received and accepted by both governmental and private sector review groups at the national level and the methods will be put to practice in January 2008.

 

Project reports (most recent)